Markets snapped back in April after the March rout. While the Iranian war settled into an uneasy ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow channel through which much of the world’s oil and gas normally moves — remained closed to seaborne traffic. Oil markets were volatile, but retraced in the month on hopes of a settlement and news that the United Arab Emirates would leave OPEC, weakening the cartel.
Surprisingly, the main US share market index shrugged off the effects of war. It rallied to record highs, led again by American technology shares and the productivity promise of artificial intelligence. Non-Chinese emerging markets also rose strongly, helped by Asian chipmakers that have become essential to an AI boom which, for all its digital promise, still depends on power, memory chips and data centres that cannot be supplied at software speed.
There were valid reasons for this optimism. US corporate earnings remain buoyant, and America is less exposed than Europe or Asia to imported energy shortages. Investors in US share markets are paying up for profits, innovation and relative insulation.
Nevertheless, oil’s sharp month-end move down masked the fact that the physical energy market is under severe strain — ships, refineries and fuel stocks do not respond as quickly as commodity prices. Nor does inflation. By month-end, higher energy prices were already appearing in rising global inflation data, while growth slowed sharply in Europe. In an admission that the next step has become harder, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all kept interest rates on hold. Higher-for-longer rates will add to the pressure on growth.
South Africa faces an especially acute dilemma. The oil shock arrived soon after the formal adoption of a lower inflation target, sponsored by the SA Reserve Bank itself. This gives the SARB less room to look through imported fuel inflation when setting monetary policy. There might be a chance of an interest rate hike, even though higher rates cannot reopen shipping lanes. This will be bad news for indebted consumers and much-needed economic growth. Government fuel relief may soften the immediate blow, but it reduces fiscal headroom at a time when borrowing costs are already elevated.
SA assets nevertheless joined the global market recovery. South African shares rose — more so in US dollars, helped by currency gains. Resources counters traded slightly lower on rand strength and as gold and platinum prices remained subdued. Bonds and listed property also recovered in the month.
April was a reminder that prices change much faster than facts. Before the war, we found ourselves in a late-cycle global economy, with inflation trending lower and dominant markets buoyed by the AI theme and trading at extreme valuations. These facts are unchanged, but the IMF and OECD have both warned that a longer energy shock would mean weaker growth and higher inflation, the worst possible mix. Corporate profits may become a casualty.
The above was adapted from Foord – In a nutshell – April 2026
The below is my own
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